A Gambler's Fallacy

Yesterday begins w/my roommate calling a truce to the prank war. I’m fine w/it, aside from having my chili hidden for a few hours nothing at all happened to me. However, I managed to have him piss on himself, deflated his air mattress while hiding the pump, as well as mass text his friends from his phone…fast forward to last night…

I’m playing 10/20 at Bellagio and at 4 am I get a drunken video message from my roommate, allow me to share the video…
http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/video … 884&ref=mf

Apparently the truce is off. Honestly this was just bad druken judgment as the prank wasn’t that good(it took me 5 mins tops to put my bed back) and the wrath he will endure for breaking the truce will definately prove to make that prank a big mistake. My next plan is to run his car out of gas, but I’m not sure of how I want him to figure it out. I don’t think it will be that funny if his car just doesn’t start and I dont think it’ll be that funny if he figures out i emptied the tank, I need something a little more elaborate to go along w/it.

Anyway as far as poker goes I put in my 7th live session for the month yesterday(1 at 5/10 plo, 3 at 5/10 NL, and 3 at 10/20 NL) and booked my 4th 5k+ win and 6th winning session for the month. For the last 6 months or so I’ve really felt head and shoulders above my competition. I’m winning roughly 80%+ of my sessions and avg. about 200bbs/session. I attribute a lot of my recent success to the time and effort I’m putting into improving my game away from the table.

One quick hand from last night 10/20 session that was fun and allowed me to really take control of the table…

I open 1st mid w/7s7d to $80. TAG player flats from the button, weak player flats from bb.

Pot($250)
Flop: Qh 5h 3d.
weak player leads into me for $140. He had led into me earlier w/a bad draw where I had flopped the nuts so I’m fairly sure this is a bad draw again(64, 74, A4, A2). I flat planning to take it away on a safe turn. TAG insta calls. My read there is that he’s very unlikely to float light and just as unlikely to flat top pair or better in a 3 way pot where a reraise will at worst iso…most likely a bad FD.

Pot: $670
Turn: (Qh 5h 3d) 4s.
weak player checks I’m assuming done w/the hand. I decide to take the same line as if I were head up and shut the hand down now, esp. considering I improved.
I lead $420. TAG player tank calls, weak player folds.

Pot:$1510
River:(Qh 5h 3d 4s) As.
Total brick for all intensive purposes barring him having had the nut FD. I decide to check knowing he’s tight and will check down most of the hands that beat me. There is no made hand in his range he can be value betting the river w/outside of maaaaaaaybe A3h but even that he’ll check down half the time.
He snap bets $800.

I’m pretty sure I’m calling but I’d like some tells for re-enforcement. So I wait him out. After some time passes he casually wipes his hand over his mouth. Joe Navarro(the FBI guy from the WPT camps) wrote an article of how touching our mouths and nose are our natural ways to calm ourselves, it’s why babies suck their thumbs/binkis. Ok pretty sure he’s weak now, I then ask, “$600 right?” knowing it’s $800. He says “$800” in a very forceful voice. That sells it, it’s air… I call.
“nice call, I missed.” Tables 8h7h… I show the 7d7s to scoop and the table begins to chatter. From that hand on I had free reign over the table. Showing that hand down literally shut people down to just playing their hands straight forward against me allowing my bluff % to go way up and me paying off their hands % to go way down. In no way is this hand that above the rim or fundamentally sound, but the profit I am able to gain by showing I’m capable of something the table wasn’t prepared for is unmeasurable.