The only thing worse than a reality check is a reoccurring reality check. Less than a month ago I suffered the biggest losing session of my career. Granted it was in one of the bigger games I’ve ever played, but given the lineup, the stars really had to align for me to set a new high score in the red. I evaluated my mistakes, made adjustments and moved on. Refocused I got back on the horse and put together 8 winners in a row, including my 3rd biggest winner to date.
With half the month to go I had my mind made up I would shoot to win 100k, which I was about 12% behind schedule on. Difficult, but not impossible. I had big plans for the WSOP, between playing and backing, and a big month would help expand. Immediately reality pinches me in the form of a wealthy German who isn’t interested in the money, but rather the pain he can inflict upon bankrolls.
At first glance I just assumed he was an online Euro who was in town for the 25k WPT main. However, after an orbit and him showing me his receipt to the 100k high roller, I quickly realized carnage would ensue. I give him his first double when he flats my squeeze w/T8o and flops trips vs my overs and nut fd. He then proceeds to 3bet/call ATo for 3k pre, followed by stuffing 10k on the flop of QTx vs another regular’s AA, immediately turning a T. The big blow would come when he opens $340 (blinds are 10/20/40 standard open is $140) I 3 bet to $1100 with AKs. A short stack behind me goes all in for $2700, German cold calls. I 5-bet to $7700 leaving myself $10k behind. He calls and then shoves on a K23 board. I call, he shows 44. Turn Ace, river 4. Break out the body bags the carcasses are beginning to pile…
Once I awoke from my self-pity induced coma, sometime late this afternoon, I took a hard look at my upcoming reality. It’s very clear to me that I was pie-eyed with my expectations of the series this year. I’m all for calculated risks, but between FullTilt never returning our funds, uncleared makeup and other financial situations there is no way we can go forward w/any sort of real volume. Don’t get me wrong having last night’s losses back would certainly ease the process, but by no means would it have made it ok to proceed w/my initial plans. That being said I’m extremely optimistic that a lot of money can be made this summer. We’ve revamped our horses schedules and hope to see them crush the Venetian’s Deep Stacks along w/the WSOP $1k events. As of now I plan to proceed w/about 19 events, including the main. I’m hoping the fire stays lit to keep me grinding cash throughout.
It’s a shame we are such a functionally flawed species that we require failure in order to keep ourselves grounded, hungry, and focused. It’d be nice to be stuck at the top of the roller coaster for a while. However, as much as I dread the ride down, in a twisted way, I appreciate the experiences that shine a spot light on my flaws.
A Gambler's Fallacy 